ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF DEBRIS ON EARTH–MOON TRANSFER TRAJECTORIES

With the increase in Earth-Moon exploration activities, the fragmentation-debris problem in cislunar space has become increasingly prominent, and the debris risk associated with Earth–Moon transfer trajectories is gradually emerging as a new potential constraint in trajectory design. To address this issue, the debris dynamical evolution along Earth-Moon transfer trajectories with different energy levels is systematically investigated in this study. A family of two-impulse transfer trajectories from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to a Distant Retrograde Orbit (DRO) is first constructed under the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem (BCR4BP) framework, and representative trajectories with distinct energy levels are selected from the Pareto-optimal solutions. Fragmentation events are then simulated at sampling points along these trajectories using the NASA Standard Breakup Model (SBM), followed by 50-day propagations of the resulting fragments to obtain their spatial distributions. Finally, the short-term risks associated with transfer trajectories of different energy levels are quantitatively evaluated through a transfer-orbit debris risk-assessment model. This evaluation provides a quantitative comparison of the risk performance of different transfer trajectories based on the simulated debris evolution results. The results indicate that the dynamical characteristics of debris motion along the transfer trajectories lead to highly consistent evolution patterns of the fragments, that under the energy scale of impulsive transfers the Earth’s gravitational attraction plays a dominant role and makes it difficult for debris to remain in stable lunar orbits; compared with impacts on the Moon and threats to spacecraft on DRO, threats to spacecraft near Earth are the primary manifestation of debris risk associated with Earth–Moon impulsive transfer trajectories; and that low-energy transfer trajectories exhibit a significant advantage over direct and medium-duration transfers in terms of short-term risk performance. Therefore, low-energy transfer trajectories can be regarded as preferable candidates for future lunar transportation route planning when debris risk is explicitly taken into account.