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中文核心期刊

基于贝叶斯可信可靠性的安全系数量化方法

A SAFETY FACTOR QUANTIFICATION METHOD BASED ON BAYESIAN CREDIBLE RELIABILITY

  • 摘要: 针对航空航天结构设计中传统经验安全系数取值过于保守、缺乏科学量化依据的问题,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯可信可靠性的安全系数量化方法。在将安全系数与概率模型中的可靠度相联系的解析框架基础上,推导了非概率模型中安全系数与可靠度的映射关系。根据贝叶斯理论对结构应力和强度进行可信建模,并用于非概率可信可靠度计算。利用实际样本数据动态更新不确定性模型参数进而更新安全系数,建立了安全系数精细动态量化方法。利用典型杆和机翼结构的数值算例验证了所提方法的有效性,给出了不同可信度水平下安全系数的取值,讨论了可信可靠度指标和样本数量对结构设计过程中安全系数选择的影响。算例结果表明所提出的方法能够有效克服传统经验安全系数的保守性问题,为航空航天领域先进结构的轻量化设计提供新的依据和指导。

     

    Abstract: To address the issues of overly conservative and insufficiently quantified safety factor selection grounded in traditional experience in aerospace structural design, this paper proposes a safety factor quantification method based on Bayesian credible reliability. Building on the analytical framework that relates safety factors to reliability in probabilistic models, the mapping between safety factors and reliability is derived for non-probabilistic models. Structural stress and strength are modeled credibly according to Bayesian principles and employed to compute non-probabilistic credible reliability. The uncertainty model parameters are dynamically updated utilizing actual sample data to subsequently calibrate safety factors, establishing a refined dynamic quantification method for safety factors. Numerical case studies of a representative rod and a wing structure validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, provide safety factor values under different credibility levels, and discuss the influence of credible reliability indices and sample size on safety factor selection in structural design. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively mitigate the conservatism of traditional experience-based safety factors, offering new foundations and guidance for the lightweight design of advanced structures in the aerospace field.

     

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