地月系统转移轨道碎片动力学演化分析
ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF DEBRIS ON EARTH–MOON TRANSFER TRAJECTORIES
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摘要: 随着地月空间探索活动的增加, 地月空间碎片问题日益凸显, 地月转移轨道的碎片风险正逐步显现为轨道设计过程中一个新的潜在约束因素. 围绕该问题, 系统分析了地月不同能量水平转移轨道上的碎片动力学演化行为. 首先, 基于双圆限制性四体问题(Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem, BCR4BP)模型构造了低地球轨道(Low Earth Orbit, LEO)至远距离逆行轨道(Distant Retrograde Orbit, DRO)的双脉冲转移轨道族, 并在Pareto前沿解中选取不同能量水平的典型轨道. 其次, 在各轨道采样点处应用NASA标准解体模型(Standard Breakup Model, SBM)模拟爆炸事件, 对生成的碎片进行了长达50天的动力学传播分析, 并获得了最终分布情况. 最后, 通过风险评估模型定量分析了不同能量转移轨道的风险表现. 研究结果表明, 碎片沿转移轨道前进的动力学特性使碎片演化具有高度一致性; 在脉冲转移的能量尺度下, 地球引力占主导作用, 碎片难以停留在绕月球的稳定轨道上; 相较于撞击月球和威胁DRO上航天器, 影响地球附近航天器是地月脉冲转移轨道碎片风险的主要表现形式; 低能转移轨道在短期风险评估中显著优于直接转移轨道和中等时长转移轨道, 在未来月球运输航线规划过程中可被优先考虑.Abstract: With the increase in Earth-Moon exploration activities, the fragmentation-debris problem in cislunar space has become increasingly prominent, and the debris risk associated with Earth–Moon transfer trajectories is gradually emerging as a new potential constraint in trajectory design. To address this issue, the debris dynamical evolution along Earth-Moon transfer trajectories with different energy levels is systematically investigated in this study. A family of two-impulse transfer trajectories from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to a Distant Retrograde Orbit (DRO) is first constructed under the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem (BCR4BP) framework, and representative trajectories with distinct energy levels are selected from the Pareto-optimal solutions. Fragmentation events are then simulated at sampling points along these trajectories using the NASA Standard Breakup Model (SBM), followed by 50-day propagations of the resulting fragments to obtain their spatial distributions. Finally, the short-term risks associated with transfer trajectories of different energy levels are quantitatively evaluated through a transfer-orbit debris risk-assessment model. This evaluation provides a quantitative comparison of the risk performance of different transfer trajectories based on the simulated debris evolution results. The results indicate that the dynamical characteristics of debris motion along the transfer trajectories lead to highly consistent evolution patterns of the fragments, that under the energy scale of impulsive transfers the Earth’s gravitational attraction plays a dominant role and makes it difficult for debris to remain in stable lunar orbits; compared with impacts on the Moon and threats to spacecraft on DRO, threats to spacecraft near Earth are the primary manifestation of debris risk associated with Earth–Moon impulsive transfer trajectories; and that low-energy transfer trajectories exhibit a significant advantage over direct and medium-duration transfers in terms of short-term risk performance. Therefore, low-energy transfer trajectories can be regarded as preferable candidates for future lunar transportation route planning when debris risk is explicitly taken into account.
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