Abstract: The static and dynamic characteristics of the roller-rail contact in the precision feed system of high-end manufacturing equipment significantly influence the overall equipment accuracy. Existing research has predominantly examined how microscopic rough surface characteristics—such as roughness, topography, and texture orientation—influence contact behavior. Nevertheless, the coupling mechanisms between temperature and mechanical response warrant deeper exploration. Especially under combined external loading and localized high-temperature conditions, contact models relying on room-temperature assumptions fail to accurately capture the evolution of contact performance in real working environments. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a statistical contact model for roller–raceway interfaces at the mesoscale, incorporating thermal effects. The model emphasizes the role of temperature in governing fundamental contact parameters, such as the critical elastic–plastic deformation of asperities and the plasticity index, and elucidates how temperature affects key outputs including contact force, contact area, and contact stiffness. A boundary element method (BEM) model was also established for numerical validation. The results indicate that the model shows good agreement with simulations across the full deformation range at elevated temperatures, though some discrepancies remain in the low-temperature, large-deformation regime. This study offers a valuable theoretical foundation for precision design and prediction of accuracy retention of feed systems serving in thermomechanically coupled environments.