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基于r个最大次序统计量模型的极值风压估算

Extreme wind pressure estimation based on the r largest order statistics mode

  • 摘要: 提出一种基于r个最大次序统计量(r largest order statistics, r-LOS)模型的极值风压估算方法, 该模型包括广义极值(generalized extreme valuedistribution, GEV)联合分布形式及Gumbel联合分布形式. 提出了独立风压峰值r-LOS序列构造方法、最优r值确定方法、r-LOS GEV模型和r-LOSGumbel模型的优选方法. 将r-LOS模型方法应用于某低矮工业建筑刚性模型测压试验的极值风压估算. 当采用多段风压时程估算极值风压时, r-LOS Gumbel模型优于r-LOSGEV模型和经典Gumbel模型. 当采用单段风压时程时, 与基于改进Hermite模型的峰值因子法、Sadek-Simiu法相比, r-LOS Gumbel模型方法能更加精确地估算极值风压,适用于非高斯风压的极值估算, 可以给出极值风压分位点的解析解. 分析表明, r-LOSGumbel模型方法是一种多段时程和单段时程条件下均适用的极值风压估算方法.

     

    Abstract: This paper presents a procedure for statisticalestimation of extreme wind pressures using the r largest order statistics(r-LOS) model, which includes a joint generalized extreme value (GEV) modeland joint Gumbel model. Methods are devised to extract r-LOS vectors ofindependent peaks from individual time histories, choose optimum r, anddiscriminate between the r-LOS GEV model and r-LOS Gumbel model, respectively.The procedure is applied to analyze the pressure data obtained on the rigidmodel of a low-rise industrial building. When multiple pressure timehistories are used to estimate the extreme pressure coefficients, ther-LOS Gumbel model is superior to the r-LOS GEV model and the classical Gumbelmodel. When a single time history is used, the r-LOS Gumbel model usuallyestimates the extreme pressure coefficients more accurately than the peakfactor method based on the Modified Hermite Model and Sadek-Simiu procedure,and it is applicable when the wind pressure is non-Gaussian; furthermore,the r-LOS Gumbel model gives an analytical solution to the quantiles ofextreme pressure coefficients. The paper concludes that the procedure basedon the r-LOS Gumbel model is an effective alternative for the estimation ofextreme wind pressures when either multiple pressure time histories or asingle time history is available.

     

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