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中文核心期刊

正态相关变量主客观不确定性分离和参数影响分析

AN SEPARATION OF THE ALEATORY AND EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTIES WITH CORRELATED NORMAL VARIABLES AND ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF PARAMETERS

  • 摘要: 针对主观和客观不确定性同时存在且输入变量相关的结构系统,研究分析了分布参数的主观不确定性对系统输出响应的影响. 首先采用正交变换进行了相关输入变量情况下主、客观不确定性的分离,通过引入独立标准正态空间辅助变量,使得分布参数的主观不确定性能够从输入变量客观不确定性中分离,进而分析分布参数的主观不确定性对输出响应的主效应指标. 其次验证了分布参数对模型输出响应期望影响的一阶方差贡献与主、客观不确定性分离后其对响应量一阶方差贡献的相等关系. 算例结果表明了文中所用主、客观不确定性分离方法的合理性和有效性.

     

    Abstract: For the structural system with correlated variables with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the influence of distribution parameters with epistemic uncertainty to the output is studied. Firstly, orthogonal transformation is used to separate the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The epistemic uncertainty is separated from the aleatory uncertainty of input variables through the auxiliary variable. After that, the main effect of distribution parameters to the model output is discussed. Secondly, the equality between the first order variance of parameters to the expectation of the output and the first order variance contribution of parameters to the output after separating uncertainties is validated. At last, some examples are utilized to demonstrate the rationality and efficiency of method used to separate the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.

     

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