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一种星间链路动力学的轻量化贝叶斯修正方法

A LIGHTWEIGHT BAYESIAN CORRECTION METHOD FOR INTER-SATELLITE LINK DYNAMICS

  • 摘要: 在巨型星座激光星间链路任务中, 轨道动力学、姿态动力学、空间环境干扰以及激光终端误差等不确定性因素难以避免, 常导致捕获困难且难以长时间稳定维持. 因此, 亟需对星间链路动力学指向误差进行系统识别与有效修正. 为此, 本文提出一种基于贝叶斯推断的轻量化、自适应且鲁棒的误差参数辨识与修正框架, 兼具高效前向仿真能力与自适应精准采样的特点. 首先, 基于在轨遥测统计数据与地面仿真实验结果, 系统梳理并量化了主要误差源. 其次, 提出状态空间高斯过程回归(State-Space Gaussian Process Regression, SS-GPR)方法构建代理模型(Surrogate model), 并设计了一种物理信息驱动的时空核函数, 以表征误差动力学特性; 相较于高保真仿真模型, 该代理模型将单次预测耗时由秒级降至毫秒级, 在测试集上的平均相对误差比小于1%. 进一步地, 本文提出一种自适应的鲁棒退火马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛算法(Adaptive Robust Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo, ART-MCMC), 可快速收敛完成误差参数的后验推断, 其平均归一化标定偏差低于5%, 有效缓解了传统马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法在高维参数空间中采样效率低、收敛缓慢及调参困难等问题. 最后, 利用所辨识的参数标定结果对动力学模型进行校准, 实验数据表明, 修正后高低角与方位角的平均误差分别从0.00027°与0.00148°降低至0.000006°与0.000034°, 残差分布收敛为零均值的窄带冲击分布. 仿真结果验证了本文所提出的基于贝叶斯推断的轻量化辨识与修正框架, 能够有效应对多源不确定性引起的星间链路动力学指向误差.

     

    Abstract: In mega-constellation laser inter-satellite link missions, uncertainty factors—such as orbital dynamics, attitude dynamics, space environmental disturbances, and laser terminal errors—are unavoidable. These factors often lead to initial acquisition difficulties and challenges in maintaining long-term link stability. Consequently, systematic identification and effective correction of dynamic pointing errors in inter-satellite links are urgently required. To address this issue, this paper proposes a lightweight, adaptive, and robust error parameter identification and correction framework based on Bayesian inference, featuring efficient forward simulation capabilities and adaptive precision sampling. First, based on on-orbit telemetry statistics and ground-based simulation results, the primary error sources are systematically analyzed and quantified. Second, a State-Space Gaussian Process Regression (SS-GPR) method is proposed to construct a surrogate model to characterize the error dynamics while a physics-informed spatiotemporal kernel is designed. Compared with the high-fidelity simulation model, this SS-GPR surrogate reduces the single prediction execution time from seconds to milliseconds, achieving an average relative error of less than 1% on the test set. Furthermore, an Adaptive Robust Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ART-MCMC) algorithm is developed, capable of achieving rapid convergence to complete the posterior inference of high-dimensional error parameters. Its average normalized calibration deviation is below 5%, which mitigates the limitations of conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in high-dimensional parameter spaces, such as low sampling efficiency, slow convergence, and tuning difficulties. Finally, the identified parameter calibration results are utilized to calibrate the dynamic model. Experimental data demonstrate that after correction, the average errors of elevation and azimuth angles are reduced from 0.00027° and 0.00148° to 0.000006° and 0.000034°, respectively, with the residual distribution converging to a zero-mean distribution with significantly reduced variance. Simulation results verify that the lightweight Bayesian inference-based identification and correction framework proposed in this paper effectively addresses the dynamic pointing errors in inter-satellite links induced by multi-source uncertainties.

     

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